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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/21 11:12

   Grains Trending Lower at Midday

   Flat to weaker trade at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is flat to higher with the Dow up 60. The dollar index 
is 7 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude 
down $0.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday, with light two sided trade to 
start the week with harvest likely to expand more in the short term. Harvest 
will expand with local conditions slowing action in some spots, along with 
soybeans taking priority in others. Ethanol margins are stable coming into the 
week with futures slightly higher this morning. Basis remains flat to weaker 
with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon with still pockets of localized 
strength. South American corn planting but is running behind normal with mixed 
weather views at this early juncture in the Southern Hemisphere growing season. 
The weekly export inspections remain soft at 531,744 metric tons. Weekly crop 
progress is likely to show steady conditions with maturity and harvest progress 
still well off the normal pace. On the December contract support is at the 
20-day moving average at $3.87 1/2; the market is trading just below at the 
10-day at $3.92 at midday. Chart resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at 


   Soybeans are narrowly mixed with trade moving back to the upper end of the 
range again with harvest pressure likely to return into the beginning of the 
week. Meal flat to 1.00 higher and oil narrowly mixed. Crush margins remain 
solidly positive, along with trade remaining overbought. The real is slightly 
weaker vs. the dollar this morning. Bean basis should see pressure as combines 
continue to roll. South America should make more progress this week and into 
the second half of the months with some weather issues remaining and planting 
pace solidly behind. The weekly export inspections were solid at 1.296 million 
metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions with harvest 
moving past 1/3 complete when it should be past 1/2. On the November chart 
support is the 10-day at $9.30 with the upper Bollinger band at $9.50 as 


   Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower with Chicago the downside leader after 
early strength evaporated. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 96 cents 
with trade hitting new highs again to close last week before narrowing slightly 
overnight. Remaining spring wheat will likely not be cut at this point. The 
corn/HRW spread has widened back to 40 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, 
working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by 
Black Sea origin, but their prices have firmed while Australia remains dry. The 
weekly export inspections improved at 565,099 metric tons. Weekly crop progress 
should show planting nearing 85%, with the first condition report possible. The 
December Kansas City chart support is the 10-day at $4.21 with the 100-day at 
4.39 the next level up with the upper Bollinger band right at $4.35.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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